Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4989
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 4989 · ORD → FSD
departs 10:29 AM CT · arrives 12:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Thu 10/1 28%
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FSD (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.