OO 4992 · ORD → FSD

departs 4:33 PM CT · arrives 6:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FSD?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at FSD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FSD (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4992 · ORD → FSD

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSD?