Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5012 LANDED 11:24 AM CT, ~18 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

OO 5012 · LEX → ORD

took off 11:22 AM ET · landed 11:24 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

LEX (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

ORD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5012 · LEX → ORD

Odds over time