Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5136
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 5136 · IAH → AEX
departs 6:45 PM CT · arrives 7:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at AEX more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at AEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to AEX?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at AEX that day
↑
6pm departures from IAH are often late
↓
AEX usually runs smoothly
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.65 in
AEX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.52 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.