Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5422
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 5422 · SFO → MSO
departs 12:15 PM PT · arrives 3:38 PM MT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 32%
Mon 10/5 33%
Tue 10/6 26%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSO more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSO?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SFO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip none
MSO (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.