Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5464
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 5464 · SFO → SBA
departs 1:50 PM PT · arrives 3:17 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SFO that day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.