Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5629
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 5629 · SDF → ORD
departs 10:04 AM ET · arrives 10:40 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Thu 10/1 46%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
SDF is prone to delays
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
10am departures from SDF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,967 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.02 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.