Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5814
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
OO 5814 · IAH → ASE
departs 9:50 AM CT · arrives 11:40 AM MT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ASE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at ASE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ASE?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ASE
↓
9am departures from IAH are usually not late
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.65 in
ASE (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.