OO 6249 · RIC → ORD

departs 8:35 PM ET · arrives 9:43 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at RIC that day

↑ OO's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.38 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6249 · RIC → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?