Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1007 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 1007 · SFO → SEA

departs 8:54 PM PT · arrives 11:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SFO that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1007 · SFO → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?