UA 1127 · BNA → ORD

departs 6:28 PM CT · arrives 8:17 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.16 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1127 · BNA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?