UA 1148 · IAH → SMF

departs 8:35 PM CT · arrives 10:43 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.14 in

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1148 · IAH → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?