Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1204 LANDED 10:07 PM PT, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

UA 1204 · AUS → SFO

took off 8:56 PM CT · landed 10:07 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1204 · AUS → SFO

Odds over time