Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1216 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 1216 · IAH → OMA

departs 8:20 PM CT · arrives 10:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OMA

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.21 in

OMA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1216 · IAH → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?