Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1233 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 1233 · DEN → EWR

departs 11:37 AM MT · arrives 5:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1233 · DEN → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?