Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1237 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 1237 · DEN → SBP

departs 7:05 PM MT · arrives 8:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±5 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBP?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SBP is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBP (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1237 · DEN → SBP

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBP?