UA 1238 · EWR → AUS

departs 9:46 AM ET · arrives 12:34 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ AUS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

AUS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1238 · EWR → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?