Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1283 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 1283 · DEN → EWR

departs 12:40 PM MT · arrives 6:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1283 · DEN → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?