Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1392 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 1392 · IAD → BOS

departs 12:55 PM ET · arrives 2:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ IAD is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ 12pm departures from IAD are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.25 in

BOS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1392 · IAD → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?