UA 1405 · BZE → IAH

took off · landed 3:57 PM CT (scheduled 12:12 PM CST → 4:00 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IAH?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at IAH that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BZE

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BZE (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

IAH (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1405 · BZE → IAH

Odds over time

How late did it get to IAH?