UA 1477 · IAH → SAT

departs 6:49 PM CT · arrives 7:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at IAH that day

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.26 in

SAT (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1477 · IAH → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?