Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1492 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 1492 · ORD → CMH

departs 9:30 PM CT · arrives 11:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CMH (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1492 · ORD → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?