Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1495 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 1495 · ORD → SFO

departs 8:04 PM CT · arrives 10:57 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±7 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1495 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?