Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1506 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 1506 · DEN → SFO

departs 9:43 AM MT · arrives 11:25 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1506 · DEN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?