UA 1508 · BUR → SFO

departs 6:42 PM PT · arrives 8:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±8 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 53% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1508 · BUR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?