Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1521 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 1521 · DSM → DEN

departs 9:14 AM CT · arrives 10:20 AM MT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DSM

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1521 · DSM → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?