UA 1523 · SEA → IAD

took off 8:56 AM PT · expected to land 4:19 PM ET (scheduled 8:29 AM PT → 4:36 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAD that day

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1523 · SEA → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?