UA 1532 · ORD → MSY

departs 10:56 AM CT · arrives 1:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MSY that day

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Arrivals into MSY at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling667 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1532 · ORD → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?