Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1541 LANDED 1:44 PM MT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

UA 1541 · AUS → DEN

took off 1:02 PM CT · landed 1:44 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ This flight has been late 8% of the time recently

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.02 in

DEN (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1541 · AUS → DEN

Odds over time