Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1542 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 1542 · IAH → SAT

departs 8:20 PM CT · arrives 9:28 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±7 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.21 in

SAT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.25 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1542 · IAH → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?