UA 1563 · IAH → ONT

departs 8:31 PM CT · arrives 9:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±4 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ONT?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.15 in

ONT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1563 · IAH → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?