UA 1564 · ORD → SAN

departs 8:07 PM CT · arrives 10:14 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 9:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1564 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?