UA 1586 · DFW → IAH

took off 10:12 AM CT · landed 10:58 AM CT (scheduled 9:52 AM CT → 11:18 AM CT)

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IAH?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.25 in

IAH (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1586 · DFW → IAH

Odds over time

How late did it get to IAH?