UA 1589 · IAH → MCI

departs 8:06 PM CT · arrives 10:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at IAH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 8pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.17 in

MCI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1589 · IAH → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?