Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1685 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 1685 · LIH → SFO

departs 10:44 PM HT · arrives 6:56 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ This flight has been late 7% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1685 · LIH → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?