Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1757 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 1757 · IAD → SFO

departs 5:55 PM ET · arrives 8:37 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.07 in

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1757 · IAD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?