Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1757 LANDED 2:30 PM ET, ~9 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

UA 1757 · MCO → IAD

took off 12:50 PM ET · landed 2:30 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1757 · MCO → IAD

Odds over time