Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1764 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 1764 · IAD → LAS

departs 8:10 PM ET · arrives 10:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.25 in

LAS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1764 · IAD → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?