UA 1784 · EWR → IAD

departs 9:50 PM ET · arrives 11:19 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 9pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

IAD (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.34 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1784 · EWR → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?