Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1806 IN THE AIR (OFF 12:23 AM HT, ETA 10:34 AM MT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

UA 1806 · HNL → DEN

took off 12:23 AM HT · expected to land 10:34 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1806 · HNL → DEN

Odds over time