Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1986SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
UA 1986 · IAD → IAH
departs 10:20 PM ET · arrives 12:45 AM CT
Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
23%chance · ±5 pts– · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.