Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1990 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

UA 1990 · AUS → ORD

departs 5:20 PM CT · arrives 8:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1990 · AUS → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?