Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2014 IN THE AIR (OFF 3:10 PM ET, ETA 4:18 PM MT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

UA 2014 · JAX → DEN

took off 3:10 PM ET · expected to land 4:18 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at JAX that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ JAX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.41 in

DEN (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2014 · JAX → DEN

Odds over time