UA 2025 · SAN → IAH

departs 4:42 PM PT · arrives 10:04 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2025 · SAN → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?