Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 202 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 202 · ORD → OGG

departs 9:20 AM CT · arrives 1:16 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 202 · ORD → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?