Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2078 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 2078 · IAH → PHX

departs 7:53 PM CT · arrives 8:42 PM MT

Forecast issued Thu 1:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.8 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.78 in

PHX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2078 · IAH → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?