Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2124 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 2124 · MSY → IAH

departs 7:00 AM CT · arrives 8:19 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAH?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ IAH is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from MSY are usually not late

Weather at each end

MSY (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.81 in

IAH (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.60 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2124 · MSY → IAH

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAH?