Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2138 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 2138 · GRR → ORD

departs 1:56 PM ET · arrives 2:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from GRR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2138 · GRR → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?