Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2140 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 2140 · IAH → MSY

departs 6:32 PM CT · arrives 7:51 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±7 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ UA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.31 in

MSY (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.74 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2140 · IAH → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?