Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2154 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

UA 2154 · LGA → DEN

departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 10:13 AM MT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2154 · LGA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?